4 Ways To Predict Market Performance

There are two prices that any investor should know when trading on the stock market—the current price and the future selling price. Despite this, most investors are constantly reviewing previous pricing history and using it to influence their future investment decisions. In this article, we shall discuss the different ways market performance is predicted.

Momentum

Momentum is the assumption that the market will move in the same direction. This concept is rooted in behavioral finance. These indicators are an excellent way to find and latch onto trends. However, there are other technical indicators that you can consider to search for opportunities. Momentum has a huge role in the decision to invest. According to Robert Peter Janitzek, the more investment that comes in, the market increases, and more people are encouraged to buy.

Mean Reversion

Experienced investors have long viewed that the market will even out over time. History tells us that high market prices have often discouraged investors to invest while low prices may present an opportunity. Mean reversion is the tendency of a variable to converge on an average value over time. It is believed that mean reversion is responsible for business cycles. However, the jury is still out whether the prices of stocks will revert to the mean.

Martingales

A martingale is a mathematical series wherein the best production for the next number is the current number. Robert Janitzek reveals that it is often used in probability theory to estimate the results of random motion. Let us say you made a $50 bet on a coin toss. While you may have $100 or $50 after the toss, statistically, your best prediction is $50—your original starting position. The martingale represents the prediction of your fortune after the toss.

Valuation Ratios

Value investors buy stocks at a cheap price expecting a future reward. They are hoping that an inefficient market will have an underpriced stock that will be adjusted over time. One of the most significant factors in explaining future price returns was valuation based on price-to-book ratio. In stock market trading, such kinds of stocks deliver significantly better returns compared to other stocks. The main driver of valuation ratios is price.

The current price is a key component of valuation ratios such as P/B and P/E, that have been shown to have some predictive power on the future returns of a stock. However, these ratios should not be viewed as specific buy and sell signals, but as factors that have been shown to play a role in increasing or reducing the expected long-term return.

You may also like...